Technical View | Nifty closes above 19,500 for the first time, fear gauge at historic lows

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The support base has moved up to 19,200 levels from 19,000 levels, and experts predict that the next barrier for the Nasdaq will be 19,600, then the 19,800-20,000 range.

As there was a short-covering at 19,500 Calls, the late-hour rally on July 14 was crucial in breaking the consolidation range (19,300-19,500) of the previous few sessions and assisting the benchmark Nifty50 to close over 19,500 for the first time. The index maintained its upward trend throughout the trading session, supported primarily by IT bulls, while volatility decreased to almost record levels.

The Nifty50 displayed a bullish bias and opened higher at 19,493 while remaining rangebound. The bulls gained further power in the previous hour, pushing the index to a brand-new record high of 19,595. Finally, the index reached a new closing high of 19,564, up 151 points, and, with above-average volumes, established a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts.

The weekly scale of the index showed a 1.2 percent increase, and a bullish candlestick pattern with long lower and short upper shadows had formed. This was the 16th week in a row that the index reached higher highs.

In addition, a breach of the upward-sloping resistance trendline that runs parallel to the highs of December 1, 2022, and July 7, 2023, is a promising development.

According to specialists, the support base has moved up to 19,200 levels from 19,000 levels previously, and the next obstacle for the Nifty might be 19,600, followed by a 19,800-20,000 range.

The weekly chart of the Nifty shows a long bull candle that negated the previous week’s negative candle and closed higher. Therefore, if the upside breakout is confirmed with a follow-through upmove on Monday, the market is expected to see further gains in the future, according to Nagaraj Shetti, a technical research analyst at HDFC Securities.

The next upside target to be watched is around 1.382 percent Fibonacci projection at 19,800 levels, which is expected to be the next upside target for the Nifty for the coming week, he added. Having moved above the crucial resistance of 19,500 (1.236 percent Fibonacci projection of weekly taken from recent bottom-top bottom), he continued. He continued, “Immediate support is at 19,470 levels.”

On the option front, the highest Call open interest was at the 19,600 strike, followed by the 20,000 strike, with significant Call writing at the 19,800 strike, then the 19,700 strike. The highest Put open interest was at the 19,500 strike, followed by the 19,400 strike, with Put writing at the 19,400 strike, then the 19,500 strike.

According to the data mentioned above, the Nifty50 is projected to encounter immediate resistance between 19,600 and 19,700, while its immediate support lies between 19,500 and 19,400.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty Index is the one to watch out for in the upcoming week, according to Rahul K. Ghose, Founder & CEO of Hedged. The index reversed the recent downtrend, closing with gains of 154 points at 44,819 and forming a bullish reversal pattern known as a Hammer candlestick pattern on the daily charts. Additionally, a favourable sign is that it has not yet broken the horizontal resistance trendline during the current slide.

Today’s closing price for Bank Nifty was a Bullish Hammer candle that fell precisely on its 20-day exponential moving average (44,554). At this average, it has gained support. We believe that today’s action marks the beginning of Bank Nifty’s momentum, which will enable it to pass its short-term barrier of 45,200 in the coming week, said Rahul.

The Bank Nifty fell by a little bit more than 100 points for the week.

The trend is now more positive for bulls thanks to a 2.33 percent decline in India VIX, which gauges the projected volatility for the Nifty50 over the next 30 days, from 10.94 to 10.68 levels, the lowest level since December 2019.